컨텐츠영역 fnctId=mtrl,fnctNo=5 The Korean Peninsula: Assessment of 2022 and Prospects for 2023 List Category Report Date of Isste 2022-12-15 ISBN 2022-12-15 Document The circumstances on the Korean Peninsula in 2022 were highly impacted by the intensifying USChina competition, reorganization of the international order due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and recognition of military tensions between the two Koreas. Significantly, the strategic competition between the US and China is expanding beyond the traditional security realm to all areas including economy, trade, technology, values, and ideology. The United States is applying pressure on China by creating security cooperation networks among liberal democracies—such as AUKUS, Five Eyes, and the Quad. Reciprocally, China, through such instruments as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO), is responding to the expansion of such Western influence. The outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still unpredictable. However, the invasion is leading to significant changes in non-traditional security areas such as Europe’s security order, plus the security of global supply chains, food, and energy. In this context, the IFES published its annual report which assesses the circumstances on the Korean Peninsula in 2022 and provides a forecast for the year 2023. Starting with the new South Korean government’s ‘Audacious Initiative,’ this report provides evaluation and prospects on specific issues, such as North Korea’s political economy, Korea-US extended deterrence following North Korea’s promulgation of nuclear-weapons use, the US-China strategic competition, the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress, Korea-China risks, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Korea-US-Japan security cooperation, tension in cross-strait relation, decoupling between the US and China, and the reorganization of global supply chains. Although 2023 marks the 70th anniversary of the Korean War Armistice Agreement, the situation on t he Korean peninsula is still opaque. It is recommended that preparations be made to establish a new unification policy, as well as countermeasures to respond to the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the rapidly changing international order. Through its analysis and policy recommendations, this report aims to contribute to enhancing the development of Korea and to bringing permanent peace to the peninsula. | Index | 01. Strategies to Realize the ‘Audacious Initiative’ of the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration Jung Kim, Professor, University of North Korean Studies 02. Assessment of North Korean Situation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023 Young Hwan Choi, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Security Strategy 03. Evaluation of the North Korean Economy in 2022 and Prospects for 2023 Yang Moon-Soo, Professor, University of North Korean Studies 04. Evaluation and Prospects of the North Korea-China-Russia Cooperation Eul-Chul Lim, Professor, IFES 05. Evaluation of Korea-US Extended Deterrence: Responding to North Korea’s New Nuclear Law and Future Countermeasures Byong-Chul Lee, Professor, IFES 06. Evaluation and Prospects of US-China Strategic Competition Jaewook Chung, Professor, IFES 07. China’s 20th Party Congress and Its Implications and Risks for Korea-China Relations Sang-Man Lee, Professor, IFES 08. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Changes in War Landscape Woong-Hyeon Lee, Research Professor, Korea University 09. Korea-US-Japan Security Cooperation: Current Status and Prospects Jin-Goo Cho, Professor, IFES 10. The Impact of the Cross-Strait Relations Crises on Korea Jun Young Kang, Professor, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies 11. Changes in the Global Economic Environment and the Korean Economy: Focusing on US Decoupling and Global Supply Chain Reorganization Gyu-Pan Kim, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for International Economic Policy