The Institute For Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University (Director Kwan-Sei Lee) held the 9th Samcheong Forum on June 13 (Thursday) at 19:00 in the conference room on the first floor of the Peace Building. At the forum, Mr. Sydney A. Seiler, former National Intelligence Analyst for North Korea at the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), gave a presentation on "Changes and Prospects of North Korea's Foreign Strategy."

Seiler analyzed state behavior under the North Korean and U.S. regimes from the post-Cold War era to the recent past, and projected the future of the Korean Peninsula, explaining that in order to understand North Korea, one must be able to grasp the narrative that reflects the international situation to accurately understand its strategic goals, tactics, and detailed procedures.

"It is clear that the North Korean regime's strategic goal of regime survival has not changed over the past three decades, and that the international community has slowed the pace of North Korea's nuclear and missile development through pressure and sanctions, but has not facilitated North Korea's denuclearization," he said. Seiler assesses that what should be noted in the development of the North Korean nuclear issue is that North Korea repeatedly engages in dialogue and then provocations, and that North Korea ultimately achieves a change in the status quo through a charm offensive, and that North Korea's strategic goal is regime survival. "It is clear that this has not changed over the past 30 years," he said.

In particular, "when Kim Jong Un spoke of 'denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula' in 2018 and asserted a formula that he would be willing to give up his nuclear weapons once the military threat to North Korea was eliminated and the security of his regime was guaranteed, it was a formula to justify his nuclear development, not a commitment to denuclearization," Seiler said. "Despite all of these obstacles and pessimism, the United States continues to engage in dialogue with North Korea, and successive U.S. presidents have attempted to do so," he said.

As for North Korea's approach to Russia, Seiler believes that continued improvement in relations between the two countries could lead to enhancement of the (North) Korean People’s Army’s conventional military capabilities as well as its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and nuclear capabilities, and that the areas of cooperation between Russia and the DPRK could include air power, naval power, and missiles.

Seiler’s presentation was followed by an active and insightful Q&A with the forum attendees.