The Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University (Director Lee Kwan Sei) held its 5th Samcheong Forum on Wednesday, January 31, 2024. At the forum, Professor Heungho Moon (Professor Emeritus of Chinese Studies, Graduate School of International Studies, Hanyang University) gave a presentation on the topic “Taiwan Presidential Election Results and Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations.”

In his presentation, Professor Moon said that in the case of Taiwan, “whichever party is elected does not actually have a significant impact on cross-Strait relations”; rather, “cross-Strait relations depend on the United States and China.” He also analyzed that “the Korean Peninsula issue is similar in that major power relations play a decisive role.” He also said, “Currently, the US-China relationship has entered a military and security adjustment phase, and the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait is very low.” He added that “cross-Strait relations features close people-to-people exchanges and economic cooperation. . . . Not only do we not want war at the civilian level, but a fratricidal war would also shake Xi Jinping’s domestic political legitimacy.”

Regarding the outlook for Taiwan's foreign relations, Professor Moon said, "It is inevitable that the Democratic Progressive Party government will be inclined towards the United States," and that it should pay close attention to the US-China relationship after the San Francisco summit and the 'Trump variable'. He predicted that “the space for survival could be blocked” and that “Taiwan’s ‘official diplomatic relations’ will become practically meaningless.”