by
Moo-jin Yang
[Professor, Kyungnam University Graduate School of North Korean Studies]
posted December 10, 2005
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INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS:
EVALUATION OF 2005 & OUTLOOK FOR 2006
Moo-jin Yang, Professor
Kyungnam University Graduate School of North Korean Studies
ROK Policy toward North Korea in 2005 and Inter-Korean Relations
In looking at the ROK policy toward North Korea and inter-Korean relations, the most important elements have been the prioritization of security issues concerning the North Korean nuclear issue and ensuring that a solution be found. Despite the February 10, 2005 announcement of the DPRK Foreign Ministry that the North does indeed possess a nuclear deterrent capability, South Korea has tried to push on with its policy of cooperation with the North. Likewise, the South has strengthened its cooperation with the countries involved in the six-party talks, and has also worked toward taking on a leading role in resolving the nuclear issue.
Development of Inter-Korean Relations
Although inter-Korean talks experienced an extended hiatus during the first half of 2005 due to North Korea’s unwillingness to engage in talks, 29 meetings were held in the second half.
More importantly, 2005 did witness joint celebrations of both the 5th anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration and the 60th anniversary of Korea’s Liberation Day. The latter event saw a 30-member delegation from North Korea visit the nation's war dead at the National Cemetery in Seoul, a gesture that some believe “would underscore a significant turnaround in inter-Korean relations,” be “an important step toward settling mutual animosity,” and help to enhance trust between the two countries.
In addition, the test stage of the Kaesong Industrial Complex is scheduled to be in full operation by the end of the year, while construction to reconnect the Kyung-ui (Seoul-Shinuiju) and East Coast rails and roads should be completed. Overland tours to Mount Kumgang should also be back on track and in full swing. In order to further improve the inter-Korean relationship, the continuation of inter-Korean talks, economic cooperation, humanitarian assistance (to the North), and private sector exchanges are necessary.
Working toward a Solution to the North Korean Nuclear Issue
Following the North’s announcement last February 10, South Korea has been actively working to prevent the tense situation on the peninsula from deteriorating. Part of that effort included South Korea’s “important offer” to send electric power to the North -- power equivalent to the output of two unfinished nuclear plants -- if North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons, a maneuver taken by Seoul in order to provide a breakthrough in the stalemated six-party talks. Seoul actively engaged China, Japan, Russia, and the United States in order to create a positive atmosphere for the talks, and reaffirmed the goal of resolving the issue through peaceful means during the ROK-U.S. summit meeting. It has also continued to maintain channels with Pyongyang in order to convince the North Korean leadership of its sincerity. Seoul impressed upon Pyongyang during the 15th (June 21-24) and 16th (September 13-16) inter-Korean ministerial talks the need to pursue tangible progress during the six-party gathering. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il also professed his desire for a nuclear-free peninsula and strategic solution to the nuclear issue through the Beijing negotiations.
Normalizing Inter-Korean Dialogue
Through meaningful meetings such as the 15th ministerial talks and last round of vice-ministerial talks (May 16-19), and through events such as the festivities surrounding Liberation Day (August 14-17), inter-Korean dialogue is systematically expanding and developing. Thanks to dialogue, various measures have been implemented to reduce tensions on the peninsula. The dismantlement of loudspeakers and propaganda billboards along both sides of the DMZ resumed after being suspended for about a year. In addition, communication offices were also set up on both sides, a measure mutually taken to reduce the risk of clashes between the North and South Korean navies in the Yellow Sea. Since the Roh government took office in Seoul, dialogue has moved forward, as inter-Korean talks have taken place on 85 separate occasions. Talks have taken place a total of 148 times since the June 2000 inter-Korean summit.
Strengthening of Inter-Korean Cooperation and Exchange
From January to October of 2005, inter-Korean exchange worth US$876 million took place. With the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) continuing to grow, inter-Korean exchange is expected to surpass US$1 billion by year’s end.(1) Currently there are fifteen plants in full operation in the model complex. For the complex, entrance and exit procedures have been streamlined, a legal system has been prepared, and markets have opened up for the goods manufactured there. Efforts have advanced to the point where an office for fostering inter-Korean economic cooperation was opened in Kaesong on October 28, 2005. This is a significant mark of progress for the two Koreas considering that it is the first time ever for South Korean officials to be stationed in North Korea.
As measures to institutionalize inter-Korean trade continue, social and cultural exchanges also continue to deepen.(2) Despite recent troubles, over 1.13 million visitors have visited Mount Kumgang in the North, and the resort is building a second facility, a reunification hall, and more, as South Korea continues to press for inter-Korean cooperation on joint projects in these special economic zones.
With the connection of roads between the North and South, people and cars are traversing the boarder in larger numbers.(3) South Korea has completed its portion of the Kyung-ui rail line and the remaining work on the east coast track (3.2 km) is in progress. When North Korea completes its portion, construction to connect the two lines will get underway.
Through the agreements reached during the fifteenth ministerial and tenth economic furtherance talks, cooperative development projects were expanded. The establishment and operation of experimental farming areas, shared fishing areas with joint protection from illegal fishing vessels, and mid-size industrial development are only some of the projects underway. South Korea has also pressed for deepening cultural ties through meetings and trips to the North in order to promote cooperation in various departments. In addition, discussions between the two Koreas on fielding a single “Korean” team at the 2006 Asian Games and 2008 Beijing Olympics have also been positive. The two Koreas have also jointly spoken on a number of issues including the Dokdo Islands dispute, and the return of Bukgwan-daecheob-bi (Bukgwan Victory Monument) from Japan(4) and the remains of Ahn Joong-geun.(5)
Resolving Humanitarian Issues
Family reunions for those separated since the end of the Korean War also took a positive turn in 2005. The 11th and 12th rounds of reunions of separated families took place during the second half of the year at the scenic Mt. Kumgang, with 908 and 903 people participating in the two events, respectively. Due to the increasing age of many of those still waiting to meet family members, the government also began promoting videoconference reunions.(6) The 11th round of family reunions also saw the groundbreaking ceremony for a permanent family reunion center to be built at the Mt. Kumgang toursim zone. The project is projected to cost US$49 million, which includes a reception hall that can accommodate 600 people, and should be completed by April 2007.
In addition, at the sixth round of Red Cross talks, the South brought up the issue of abductees and prisoners of war being held in the North, but received only a conciliatory agreement. South Korea continues to provide the North with foodstuffs bilaterally as well as through the World Health Organization (WHO), World Food Program (WFP) and the United Nations’ Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
Disappointments
The first half of the year saw no inter-Korean meetings, and South Korea has not successfully expanded relations. With the North’s public announcement on February 10, the already tense atmosphere on the peninsula intensified, retarding the South’s attempts to maintain the momentum of the inter-Korean relations. In addition, the government was lax in promoting trust and cooperation outside of the three representative economic projects, and has insufficiently promoted the inter-Korean relationship. The scandal surrounding Kim Yoon Kyu -- the former Hyundai-Asan executive officer who allegedly misappropriated company and inter-Korean cooperation funds -- and Seoul’s lack of coordination with Hyundai on inter-Korean projects is one example of Seoul’s inability to promote trust.(7)
Another serious disappointment of 2005 is the fact that the North Korean nuclear issue has yet to be resolved. This issue alone is still the largest obstacle preventing inter-Korean relations from expanding. Concrete progress toward resolving the nuclear issue will continue to be a challenge in 2006. With the North’s demand for a light-water reactor and asserted right to “peaceful uses of nuclear energy,” resolution will require considerably more time.
The Korean Peninsula and Inter-Korean Relations in 2006
Outlook for Northeast Asia
Political and military tensions still linger in Northeast Asia. Issues surrounding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, the Taiwan Strait, Japan’s desire to amend its peace constitution, and territorial disputes between China and Japan still sit as impediments to establishing a stable peace in the region. In addition, the growing influence of China in the region (due to its economic expansion) and the strengthening of the Japan-U.S. strategic alliance have led some to believe that this may lead to a strategic confrontation between the two sides in the future. In order to maintain at atmosphere conducive to peace, regional economic cooperation needs to be put above other regional issues. Likewise, a forum for discussion and promotion of regional security -- similar to the six-party talks designed to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue -- should be more widely promoted and expected in the future.
South Korea will closely coordinate its policies with the United States and Japan on North Korean nuclear weapons program. At the same time, Seoul has to cooperate with China and Russia toward convincing the United States to continue the diplomatic track with North Korea and ease off of hard-line policies that seek to isolate the North. Seoul should also seek to facilitate U.S.-DPRK and Japan-DPRK relations. To this end, a Russia-DPRK summit is expected soon. The strengthening of positive dialogue among these actors can lead to the building of trust in the bilateral relationships and work toward negotiating a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue.
Regardless of the conditions surrounding the nuclear issue, South Korea will continue to maintain and even expand relations with the DPRK in order to prevent the North from becoming isolated. It can be expected that the ROK will work cooperatively with the North and proceed with an economic strategy that minimizes influence on the North’s system. The Roh government is determined to establish a peace regime on the peninsula, and is expected to continue its conciliatory approach toward North Korea in order to facilitate inter-Korean economic prosperity.
North Korean Outlook
North Korea regime still believes that the international community harbors hostile intent. Through the recognition of the 5th anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration, and the 60th anniversaries of both the liberation of Korea and the establishment of the Korea Workers’ Party, North Korea has worked domestically to strengthen the regime. The regime’s will to survive is unlikely to fade away. While minimizing the side effects of marketization and opening up, the North will continue to take measures to prevent outside information from flowing over the country’s borders and influencing the population.
The North will continue to plan for economic expansion and attempt to bring greater stability to the lives of its people though expansion of production in light industries and agriculture, as well as through the development of technology. By leveraging the South and China through six-party talks, foreign economic assistance will continue to come in. In an effort to avoid North Korea’s isolation, the EU, as well as other countries in Northeast Asia and Africa, will actively seek ways to increase financial cooperation with the North.
North Korea is focused on boosting trust in the inter-Korean relationship while stressing nationalism and the avoidance of external pressure to change. By supporting South Korea’s “progressive” or pro-North elements, Pyongyang may likely continue to try to indirectly stir up controversy in the South Korean public and meddle in the domestic political issues of the South.
Inter-Korean Relations
With pressure being applied from inside and out on both governments over the expansion of inter-Korean economic cooperation and policy toward peace, it will be important to keep an eye on how things progress in the economic sector and what kind of progress occurs in inter-Korean projects such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex, tourism in Kaesong and Mount Baekdu, the holy mountain for the entire Korean nation located on the border with China, and as well in inter-Korean cooperation involving agriculture, light industry, and fisheries. South Korea will no doubt continue to focus on expanding economic cooperation and assistance to North Korea as part of its comprehensive policy toward solving the nuclear issue. Private sector and cultural contacts will also be deepened.
Due to South Korea’s strong demands, the possibility for progress in the political and military realms does exist. Inter-Korean military issues will have no small influence over the development of a peace structure on the Korean peninsula and the six-party talks. The sharp differences that exist between Pyongyang and Washington on the concrete measures for instituting the September 19 agreement, and between Pyongyang and Tokyo, will also have considerable influence over inter-Korean relations. Problems within the North Korean system and conservative opposition within the South inevitably will limit this expansion of the inter-Korean relationship. Despite unavoidable lulls in progress, however, momentum for cooperation must be maintained.
NOTES
(1) “Inter-Korean Trade to Reach $1 Billion,” International Herald Tribune, October 13, 2005.
(2) Inter-Korean human interaction:
Year/ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005(Oct.)
No./ 8742 13,877 16,303 26,534 71,967
(3) Around 1,200 people in 170 cars cross daily.
(4) A stone stele commemorating a series of Korean military victories between 1592 and 1594 against the invading army of Japan during the Seven-Year War. It was subsequently taken to Japan during the Japanese occupation of Korea during the Russo-Japanese War. It was later found on the grounds of the controversial Yasukuni Shrine. It was returned to South Korean authorities on October 12, 2005, and is scheduled to be placed in its original location, which is in North Korea.
(5) The two Koreas signed a formal agreement to push for a joint excavation of the remains of Ahn Joong-geun, a prominent anti-Japanese independence patriot buried in China. For further details, see Yohnap News (online ed.), September 22, 2005, at http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20050922/630000000020050922114024E3.html.
(6) “The Korean National Red Cross said … that 40 South Korean families will be allowed to see their North Korean relatives by a video linkup for the first time since the end of the Korean War. A total of 561 South and North Koreans will participate in the meetings. The video reunions, the second of their kind, follow an agreement between the two countries’ Red Cross organizations in October. Another round is planned in early December. . . . the video program was introduced to allow greater numbers of separated family members to meet. More than 100,000 people in South Korea alone have applied for the reunion programs.” “Video Reunions for Separated Families,” Korea.net, November 23, 2005, online at http://www.kois.go.kr/news/News/newsView.asp?serial_no=20051123007.
(7) It should be noted that the ROK Ministry of Unification denied that Kim could have embezzled money from the inter-Korean cooperation fund, as the fund has never been directly sent to Hyundai Asan. “‘Kim Yoon-kyu Did Not Misappropriate State Fund’,” Korea Times, October 6, 2005.
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