The Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University's (Director Lee Kwan-Sei) held the 7th Samcheong Forum in the conference room on Tuesday, April 23, 2024. At the forum, Professor Kim Jung (University of North Korean Studies) gave a presentation on the topic “The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election and the Korean Peninsula.”

In his presentation, Professor Kim said that the main issues for the 2024 US presidential election are “threat to democracy (23%), economy + jobs (19%), immigration (17%), crime (6%), foreign policy (4%), and abortion (4%).” Looking at incumbent president Joe Biden, Biden's strengths (in order) are the threat to democracy, foreign policy, and abortion issues; on the other side, former president and likely presidential candidate Donald Trump's strengths are issues regarding the economy + jobs, immigration, and crime. According to a poll in early April 2024, “Biden among battleground states: Pennsylvania; Trump: he is high in Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, etc., but it is expected that Biden will have an advantage over time due to Trump's judicial risks.”

Regarding security issues on the Korean Peninsula, Professor Kim said that in the case of Biden and the Democratic Party, “It is expected that defense cost sharing will be maintained at the current agreed level, and the prerequisites for complete denuclearization related to North Korea’s nuclear weapons will be maintained,” and “at the regional level of the ROK-US alliance and ROK-US-Japan security cooperation it will increase.” It was predicted that “the risk of ‘involvement’ -- such as in a Taiwan Strait crisis -- will increase as the functional scope expands,” and in the case of the Republican Trump, there is “the possibility of renegotiation of defense cost sharing and the freeze on the nuclear situation without complete denuclearization of North Korea as a prerequisite for nuclear weapons.” “There is a possibility that an agreement will be reached if the relative benefits of the United States are met, such as the disposal of long-distance missile launchers,” and “It is highly likely that the priority of the North Korean nuclear issue will be lowered due to international security issues that are visible and relatively easy to negotiate, such as ending the war in Ukraine or resolving the Israel issue.”

After the presentation, questions were asked by graduate students and experts who attended the forum.